Tim Bond Global Speculations

Global Outlook - covering economy, asset prices, interest rates, monetary policy, recession risk and China

Tim detailed the challenges with economic modelling in these uncertain times. That said he viewed the US partial quarantine as likely to fail and have the effect of elongating the time to recovery. Tim estimates that a third to a half of global GDP may have been lost permanently and the rest would come back over the next 3 to 4 quarters. However, one cannot assume we will be back to positive year over year growth a year from now as the stimulus packages do not look large enough. That said, war-time budget deficits will be the norm as governments offset the rise in desired savings on the part of households and corporates. In terms of asset allocation, Tim advocates switching out of government bonds and equities into high quality corporate credit as the government policy response has been supportive of credit over equities. In the longer term companies should invest more CapEx leading to a pick-up in productivity and increased competition, avoiding a Japanese style slow deflation.