Macro Intelligence 2 Partners

A General Turn in Macro with Implications for All Markets

Conference call with Julian Brigden

Julian described the US labour market flexibility as it’s Achilles heel as after mass lay-offs, unemployment does not do V-shaped recoveries. If we are lucky we will see the peak in unemployment early next year. Predicting 12% unemployment rate, but what if its 20%? - There will be social unrest! COVID-19 has ushered in a massive societal inflection point. The world will be radically different the other side. We have seen that any concept of fiscal rectitude is dead. There will be financial repression to fund this, bonds, bitcoins, you name it. De-globalisation will accelerate. Corporate capitalism, laissez faire economics, buybacks, massive dividends, continuation of the greater share of the pie going to the corporate sector, will all end. The Treasury and the Fed are now the same just like in the 60’s. Now though the dollar and commodities are free floating, meaning the resulting inflation from debt monetisation, once we are past this disinflationary environment, will be disastrous for bonds. Macro views will start to be played through FX markets as governments pin bond yield curves. The risk-off dollar rally is in its final stage. Expect a weaker dollar as the Fed has guaranteed dollar liquidity. Trades Julian mentioned included: Breakevens and TIPs as Fed pins the curve you have no duration risk - so huge upside from an inflationary print. Precious metals will start to perform, but not gold - it is all about silver, as gold / silver ratio is a perfect inverse correlation to 5 year break even yields. Other interesting markets currently include Japan, Sweden and Mexico. Also bullish NZD and ASD as a play on commodities.